India's headline retail inflation is expected to moderate further in the months to come, as low wholesale inflation will transmit to consumer prices, the Ministry of Finance said in its latest monthly economic review (MER) on Monday. "Inflationary pressures eased in February, with slight moderation in Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation softening to a 25-month low. "With WPI inflation easing, its transmission to CPI inflation is soon expected," the MER for February said.
Amul and Mother Dairy, India's largest dairy product retailers, have increased milk prices by Rs 2 per litre, marking the second such hike in 13 months. This move is expected to intensify inflationary pressures, already fuelled by global conflicts, and will impact household budgets across the country.
Subdued prices of food items like vegetables pulled down retail inflation for the third month in a row to 5.3 per cent in August, within the RBI's comfort zone. While the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based retail inflation declined to 5.3 per cent in August from 6.69 per cent in the same month a year ago, food inflation dipped at a much faster pace to 3.11 per cent from 9.05 per cent in August 2020. The food inflation was also lower than 3.96 per cent in preceding month of July.
Retail inflation slowed to 4.29 per cent in April from 5.52 per cent in March, mainly due to easing food prices, government data showed on Wednesday. The Reserve Bank mainly factors in the retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) while arriving at its monetary policy. As per the data released by Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, inflation in the food basket was 2.02 per cent in April, down from 4.87 per cent in the preceding month.
Crisil Research expects retail inflation to rise 60 basis points to 4 per cent this fiscal from 3.4 per cent in 2018-19.
Retail inflation rose marginally to 9.84 per cent in September, mainly due to a hike in food prices, particularly of vegetables.
Overall retail inflation in rural and urban areas stood at 7.38 per cent and 8.25 per cent in January, respectively.
"There is a sharp jump that we have seen in bookings of EVs... The jump, at least in our case, in just two months, it is about 2 to 2.5 times of what it used to be"
'When I look at India's relative valuations, these are by far the lowest I have seen in my 35-year career.' 'The relative 12-month trailing performance is among the weakest I have seen, and foreign investor positioning is at a 16-17 year low.'
The rate of price rise in the food basket contracted by 0.86 per cent in October compared to 0.51 per cent rise in September
The gems and jewellery industry anticipates challenging times following the government's decision to increase gold import duty to 15 per cent, a move that exporters warn could fuel the grey market and heighten smuggling risks.
Declining vegetable prices brought down the retail inflation to a 15-month low of 4.59 per cent in December and within the comfort zone of the Reserve Bank, government data showed on Tuesday. It is for the first time during the current fiscal that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation print is below 6 per cent or in the RBI's target range of 2 to 6 per cent. The central bank factors in the CPI-based inflation while arriving at its monetary policy. The inflation in December 2020 came down from 6.93 per cent in November, mainly on account of 10.41 per cent decline in vegetable prices over the year-ago period.
Retail inflation eased to 7.04 per cent in May, mainly on account of softening food and fuel prices as the government as well as the RBI stepped in to control spiralling price rise by way of duty cuts and repo rate hike. However, the inflation print stayed above the Reserve Bank's upper tolerance level of 6 per cent for the fifth month in a row. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was 7.79 per cent in April.
India's services sector growth reached a five-month high in April, with the HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index rising to 58.8, primarily driven by robust domestic demand and a shift from international to local suppliers amidst the West Asia crisis.
Fixed deposits from nationalised banks delivered higher returns than equities, outperforming both inflation and stock market benchmarks.
Hindustan Unilever (HUL) exceeded consensus estimates in Q4FY26, driven by lower overheads and 6 per cent consolidated volume growth. However, the company anticipates further price hikes to counter an expected 8-10 per cent material cost inflation, while maintaining a mid-term margin guidance of 22.5-23.5 per cent.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday raised the retail inflation forecast for 2021-22 to 5.7 per cent due to supply side constraints, high crude oil and raw materials cost. The RBI in June had pegged the retail inflation estimate at 5.1 per cent for the current financial year. The RBI has the mandate to keep inflation in a band of 2-4 per cent, with a tolerance level of 2 per cent on either side.
Wholesale price inflation (WPI) declined to (-) 0.13 per cent in June as prices of food articles and fuel saw deflation, along with easing in manufactured product costs, government data showed on Monday. WPI-based inflation was 0.39 per cent in May. It was 3.43 per cent in June last year.
As per the data released by the NSO, the overall food inflation rose to 14.12 per cent in December as against (-) 2.65 per cent in the same month of 2018.
Policymakers say falling rupee could lead to rise in prices of imported items such as edible oil and build up inflationary expectations in the economy.
Retail food inflation in December came in at 6.40 per cent.
Costlier vegetables and eggs pushed up retail inflation to a nearly six-and-a-half year high of 7.61 per cent in October, keeping it significantly above the comfort zone of the Reserve Bank.
Titan will continue investments, even as it notes it is too early to assess how customer sentiment and store footfalls will be impacted by the Prime Minister's appeal to reduce gold consumption and the recent hike in import duty.
Inflation in protein-based items -- egg, meat and fish -- stood at 14.36 per cent during the month. In oils and fats segment, it stood at 11.72 per cent.
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Declining prices of food items like vegetables pulled down retail inflation to 5.59 per cent in July, bringing it back within the RBI's comfort zone after two months, official data showed on Thursday. The retail inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) had remained above 6 per cent during May and June. The government has mandated the RBI to maintain retail inflation at 4 per cent, with a margin of 2 per cent on either side. The CPI based inflation stood at 6.26 per cent in June 2021 and 6.73 per cent in July 2020.
ITC reported a 6.1 per cent year-on-year growth in its consolidated adjusted net profit from continuing operations, reaching ~5,469.74 crore in the January-March quarter (Q4FY26), primarily fuelled by strong performances in its cigarettes and non-cigarette fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) businesses.
Sensex gains over 400 points while Nifty trades above 23,800 amid strong IT sector buying.
The rate of price rise in the protein rich items like eggs, milk and other products too moderated in March as against the previous month.
In April, RBI had projected retail inflation to be around 5 per cent.
The rate of price rise has been on a decline for the past four months.
Vegetable prices recorded the maximum spurt in prices, up 24.55 per cent, followed by edible oils -- 17.63 per cent and milk products -- 14.94 per cent in April, year-on-year basis.
Indian oil marketing companies are incurring significant losses, selling petrol at a Rs 14 per litre loss and diesel at Rs 18 per litre, as elevated global crude oil prices, exacerbated by the West Asia crisis, outpace capped retail fuel rates, according to rating agency Icra.
Retail inflation dropped marginally to 7.01 per cent in June mainly due to slight easing in prices of vegetables and pulses, though it still remained above the Reserve Bank's comfort level for the sixth month in a row. The consumer price index (CPI) based inflation stood at 7.04 per cent in the preceding month of May and 6.26 per cent in June 2021. Inflation in the food basket in June 2022 was 7.75 per cent, compared to 7.97 per cent in the previous month, as per the National Statistical Office (NSO) data released on Tuesday.
The inflation crossed doubled digit mark in December at 10.56 per cent, against 9.90 per cent in November.
CPI inflation is on the decline since July.
Retail inflation fell to a five-month low of 4.35 per cent in September from 7.27 per cent in the year-ago period as prices of vegetables and other items declined, according to government data released on Tuesday. The moderation in Consumer Price Index-based inflation is in line with the assessment of Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das who recently projected substantial softening of retail inflation. The CPI inflation was at 5.3 per cent in August and at 7.27 per cent in September 2020.
'PM Modi is trying to reduce the volume of fuel consumed instead of raising prices sharply.'
Food inflation was 7.79 per cent last month, higher than a revised 7.47 per cent in May
Costlier vegetables and fruits, such as onions and tomatoes, drove retail inflation to 10.09 per cent in October, entering double digits after seven months.
India's consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation could ease in the coming months thanks to the arrival of kharif crops, lower international commodity prices, and a pass through of lower input costs to consumers, the finance ministry said in its Monthly Economic Review (MER) for October, which was released on Thursday. The MER, however, warned that the global macroeconomic situation remained precarious and a recession in many advanced economies would impact India's exports. "Easing international commodity prices and new Kharif arrival are set to dampen inflationary pressures in the coming months.
